HYBRID LOGISTICS MODEL IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE: A COMBINATION OF IMPORTS, LOCAL PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL INSTABILITY

Abstract

The relevance of the study is stipulated by the need to rethink logistics strategies in international trade in the context of global instability, disruption of traditional supply chains, institutional fragmentation and an increase in the number of external shocks, from geopolitical conflicts to pandemic and financial crises. It has been found that classical models dominated by import dependence lose their effectiveness in the context of multi-vector volatility, which requires the formation of more flexible logistics systems with built-in adaptation mechanisms. The purpose of the article is to provide a scientific basis for an adaptive model of hybrid logistics in international trade that integrates imports, localized production and domestic distribution, taking into account scenario risks, logistics costs and requirements for the continuity of trade flows, and to develop approaches to its application in the face of uncertainty and growing systemic challenges. The research methodology is based on a combination of systemic, scenario, structural-functional and comparative approaches. The article analyzes the evolution of logistics strategies, identifies the key principles of interaction between the components of hybrid logistics, typologizes countries by their adaptive potential, and assesses the impact of infrastructure and institutional factors on the efficiency of models in different regions. The results of the study are reflected in the construction of a structural model of hybrid logistics with five basic elements (import, localized production, distribution, analytical module, digital management platform), which provides flexible re-profiling of flows in accordance with changing external conditions. The author identifies typical barriers to the implementation of such models, ranging from regulatory inconsistencies to technological asymmetries. Applied mechanisms for the implementation of hybrid logistics based on the cases of Ukraine, Singapore, and Kazakhstan are identified. The conclusions confirm the need to move to hybrid models as a basic condition for increasing trade sustainability. It is proved that the effectiveness of such a system is due to the availability of multimodal infrastructure, digital integration, local production capabilities, and cross-sectoral coordination. It is substantiated that traditional linear schemes do not provide the necessary flexibility in the face of crisis. Prospects for further research are related to quantitative modeling of the adaptive potential of national logistics systems, creation of digital platforms for managing hybrid logistics based on AI, and development of industry-specific scenarios for use in high-risk sectors.